Wednesday, February 16, 2005

Thoughts on DOI #3 - Uncertainty

More explanation of the Declaration of Interdependence with the third statement focused on uncertainty.

#3 - Uncertainty

• We manage uncertainty through iterations, anticipation and adaptation

The key term here is uncertainty and its scope. We had to settle on one word to capture the essence of variation, change, unknowns and chaos. We settled on uncertainty as the one single word which best captured the essence of the problem. Uncertainty in this context means from variation to chaos, as defined by De Meyer et al, Managing Project Uncertainty: from Variation to Chaos, and shown in this diagram

By embracing uncertainty into the new paradigm, we’re clearly making a split from traditional project management theory. There is no concept of uncertainty in critical path. In the PMBOK uncertainty is handled through the notion of risk. Variation in the latest 2004 addition is handled through positive and negative risk. Positive risk? I hear you say. What the heck? Indeed!

The DOI embraces uncertainty. It’s a reality of the universe we live in. It’s fundamental. No model of project management can deny it or go without it.

We deal with uncertainty by iterating often, providing control and feedback points to make corrections based on the effects of uncertainty. We also anticipate uncertainty. It is the inclusion of “anticipate” in this statement which allows it to encompass Critical Chain. And finally, we learn from our feedback and adapt. This can mean adjusting future anticipation or simply reacting to current events with adaptive planning. In the new paradigm, uncertainty is a facet of planning and scheduling. Planning can be anticpatory or reactive or both. It’s not a risk management problem.